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Major Survey of Market Sentiment Carried Out on Day One of SEA ASIA 2009  – Almost 500 Shipping Executives polled ; Major  Bulk and Container Trades in the Spotlight :  Exclusive Results Below

Tuesday April 21, 2009

Sea Asia, the iconic maritime event, kicked off in Singapore today with 500 senior shipping executives polled on how they saw the global markets developing in the rest of 2009 and beyond.

The executives, who were attending the major bulk and container market conference sessions, were asked a series of questions and had to respond via a touch pad voting system which registered their opinions on screen instantly.

The survey results will be published exclusively by Seatrade, the co-organisers of Sea Asia 2009, once all the data has been analysed.

But a snapshot of the polling today revealed some startling insights into how some of the world’s leading ship owners and managers view today’s depressed markets.

The questionnaire in this morning’s bulk session revealed that 39% of the executives polled believed that between 20% and 30% of the global bulk carrier fleet currently on order –standing at 7,000 ships - will be cancelled.

The polled executives also gave their views on whether the Baltic Dry Index would recover or fall further by the end of 2009.  63% of executives polled thought there would be a recovery in the BDI leading to the index hitting between 2,000 and 4,000 by December.

In answer to the question: When will a reasonable balance between dry bulk ship supply and demand be restored? 68% said not before 2012.

For the tanker market, Seatrade posed the question:  Which tanker sector is best placed for the short and medium term future?

Some 33% identified the product carrier sector as the most resilient, while 28% selected smaller crude tankers and just 19% picked large crude tankers (VLCC and Suez Max).

The executives in the bulk session were also asked their view on the price of oil. In answer to how much a barrel of crude oil would fetch during the rest of 2009, 53% voted that oil would settle at between $60 and $80 per barrel.

The survey also produced some fascinating results in the container session in the afternoon.

The question: Which key container trade line is likely to recover first? An overwhelming 55% voted for the intra-Asia trades. Some 18% said the trans-Pacific would recover first and 17% voted for the North-South emerging markets trade lanes. Just 10% said the Asia-Europe trade lane would recover first.

The respondents were also asked what percentage of box ship newbuildings would eventually be delivered, out of a current 1,100 containerships on order.

Some 33% said 60%-70% would be delivered; 24% said less than 60% would be delivered; 23% said 70% to 80% and 20% said more than 80%.

The executives were also asked which container vessel size would be most negatively affected in the current downturn, due to overcapacity, and 59% said ships in excess of 10,000 TEU. Finally they were asked to comment on the future optimum size of vessels on main haul trades and 43% said between 8,000-10,000 TEU.

ENDS

ABOUT SEATRADE
For over 30 years, Seatrade has been a leading maritime publisher and international events organiser. Headaquartered in UK, Seatrade publishes Seatrade magazine and Seatrade Cruise Review plus bespoke supplements.

Seatrade’s family of conferences and exhibitions has grown in strength and number over the years.  Its signature exhibition and conference event in this region, SEA ASIA (co-organised with the Singapore Maritime Foundation), takes place once every two years.
With an increasing presence in Asia, Seatrade opened a Representative Office in Singapore in 2006.For more information about Seatrade’s evolving portfolio of publications and events, visit www.seatrade-global.com.

ABOUT SMF
The Singapore Maritime Foundation is a private sector-led organisation established to develop and promote Singapore as an International Maritime Centre (IMC).

Established in 2004, the Foundation seeks to work in partnership with the different sectors of the maritime industry to advance the maritime interests of Singapore through collaborations and events.  Some of the notable projects include the inaugural collaboration with Seatrade, Sea Asia, the iconic maritime event which has received overwhelming response from the industry players, both in Singapore and overseas, the MaritimeONE (Outreach Network) an initiative that seeks to heighten awareness of the maritime industry, the maritime professionals, the exciting career opportunities and boost recruitment into this booming industry.  For details, visit www.smf.com.sg

For more information, please contact Helix Media, public relations consultants to Seatrade for SEA ASIA 2009.
Edward Ion:  +65 6294 8500
Mobile: +65 9111 6871
Email: edward.ion@helixmedia.asia
Website: www.helixmedia.asia

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